BC Ferries Schedule Analysis
My analysis of the BC Ferries Schedule is initially focused on Departure Time Performance.  BC Ferries in their Financial Statements issued for the year ending 2001 ( The most current Year ) at page 30 says the following:

 ON-TIME SAILING PERFORMANCE

RATIONALE/METHODOLOGY: To measure the number of sailings departing within 20 minutes of schedule.  This measures the number of times during the reporting period that a departure was made within 20 minutes of scheduled departure. This is expressed as a percentage of the total number of sailings.

VARIANCE ANALYSIS:  In Mainland Services and Northern Services, the on-time performance improved slightly in the 4th quarter and stayed the same for Inter-Island Services. IIS had more weather delays in this 4th quarter compared to last year’s 4th quarter.  Year to year averages show MS and IIS on-time performance decreasing marginally while NS on-time performance improved.  Seasonally, while the fleet average for the remainder of the year remains in the mid-90 percentage points, the 2nd quarter on-time percentage figures traditionally drop to a fleet average of about 87% due to increased traffic flow.  Also of note is that normally about 71% of all delays are due to accumulation over the course of the day after the initial cause, because the vessel is unable to make up the time.

 
Route Group

1999-2000

2000-2001

2001-2002
Mainland Services

88%

 89.1% 88.3%
Inter Island Services 93.5% 93.3% 92.8%
Northern Services 94% 94.7% 95%

    During the course of this Summer's Schedule at about 23:30 each night, I would take a copy of BC Ferries Actual Sailings times as reported on their website at BC Ferries: Current Conditions.  The web pages were converted to Excel XP spreadsheets and the spreadsheets converted into an Access XP database.  During the coarse of this time period I captured most but not all days.  Days not captured are simply ignored in the database and should not skew the results significantly.

Although the time periods may not sync exactly, the 87% fleet average reported in 2001-2002 drops to 82.6% for major routes but climbs to 92.8% for the two minor routes using major terminals as reported below.

 

 

Route Sailings Early - 20 Late 21 - 30 Late 31 - 60 Late 61 - 90 Late 90 +
Departure Bay to Horseshoe Bay 659 74.36% 11.38% 12.90% 1.06% 0.30%
Horseshoe Bay to Departure Bay 657 71.23% 10.96% 15.68% 1.98% 0.15%
             
Duke Point to Tsawwassen 471 82.17% 9.77% 7.64% 0.21% 0.21%
Tsawwassen to Duke Point 477 87.63% 7.13% 4.61% 0.42% 0.21%
             
Horseshoe Bay to Langdale 578 78.03% 8.65% 11.94% 1.38% 0.00%
Langdale to Horseshoe Bay  581 83.48% 7.57% 7.92% 1.03% 0.00%
             
Swartz Bay to Tsawwassen  942 92.14% 4.67% 2.97% 0.21% 0.00%
Tsawwassen to Swartz Bay 943 91.94% 4.98% 2.76% 0.32% 0.00%
             
Average   82.62% 8.14% 8.30% 0.83% 0.11%

 

Route Sailings Early - 20 Late 21-30 Late 31-60 Late 61-90 Late 90+
Horseshoe Bay to Snug Cove (Bowen Island) 920 89.35% 6.52% 4.02% 0.11% 0.00%
Swartz Bay to Fulford Harbor (Saltspring Is) 497 96.18% 2.21% 1.61% 0.00% 0.00%
             
Average   92.76% 4.37% 2.82% 0.05% 0.00%

 

While a twenty minute delay on a Nanaimo or Victoria run may be acceptable to a tourists I would respectfully suggest that it is totally unacceptable to a commuter on the Langdale run.  Twenty minutes translates into missed buss connections which adds a minimum 30 minute delay with an additional 10 minute longer bus ride traveling from Horseshoe Bay to  Downtown Vancouver to a maximum 2 hour delay on the Langdale to Sechelt bus run.  The average commuter will accept a 10 minute delay as this will not usually impact bus schedules as the buses usually wait.  The number recrunched on the basis of a 10 minute acceptable delay reveals the following table.

 

 

Route Sailings Early to 10 Late 11-20 Late 21-30 Late 31-60 Late 61-90 Late 90+
Departure Bay to Horseshoe Bay 659 50.83% 23.52% 11.38% 12.90% 1.06% 0.30%
Horseshoe Bay to Departure Bay 657 44.75% 26.48% 10.96% 15.68% 1.98% 0.15%
               
Duke Point to Tsawwassen  471 55.20% 26.96% 9.77% 7.64% 0.21% 0.21%
Tsawwassen to Duke Point 477 60.38% 27.25% 7.13% 4.61% 0.42% 0.42%
               
Horseshoe Bay to Langdale 578 55.36% 22.66% 8.65% 11.94% 1.38% 0.00%
Langdale to Horseshoe Bay 581 65.58% 17.90% 7.57% 7.92% 1.03% 0.00%
               
Swartz Bay to Tsawwassen 942 71.02% 21.13% 4.67% 2.97% 0.21% 0.00%
Tsawwassen to Swartz Bay 943 70.10% 21.85% 4.98% 2.76% 0.32% 0.00%
               
Average   59.15% 23.47% 8.14% 8.30% 0.83% 0.11%
               
               
Horseshoe Bay to Snug Cove (Bowen Island) 920 67.07% 22.28% 6.52% 4.02% 0.11% 0.00%
Swartz Bay to Fulford Harbor (Saltspring Is) 497 91.15% 5.03% 2.21% 1.61% 0.00% 0.00%
               
Average   79.11% 13.66% 4.37% 2.82% 0.05% 0.00%

 

Notice that the average for major routes drops from 82.6% to 59.2%.  On the two minor routes reported the average drops from 92.8% to 79.1%  As you drill deeper and deeper into the data you will get a better feel for what happened.

The drilling down or reporting process is accomplished in two ways.  The first is using web pages that report directly from the Access XP database and a set of standard WebPages that display data snaps shots taken of the summer period.

The Access WebPages automatically reflect the data added on a weekly basis each Monday night.  The down side is that their are no graphs available in these reports.  They also require you to have Office XP Web Components installed on your system.  If you do not have Office XP Web Components installed on your system, the first time access a page it will direct you to a FREE Microsoft from which you can download them.  Once installed access the webpage again and you will be instructed how register this site as a trusted web site.  This is a requirement from Microsoft, not me.

While the standard web pages are simpler to access and do have graphs they do not include the weekly up dates. Access the reports by clicking on one or both of the links below.